Energy consumption by the world’s sprawling data centres may not pose an imminent environmental threat after all, according to a new study.
In contrast to earlier warnings of skyrocketing growth, the energy consumption of global data centres rose only 6% from 2010 to 2018. This slower growth is due to greater energy efficiency – and the single biggest driver of this efficiency is the shift to cloud computing. The study, published in the journal Science, is the work of American scientists from Northwestern University, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and as independent research firm. It analysed information on processors, storage, software, networking and cooling to estimate actual electricity use.
Not surprisingly, the largest cloud data centres are owned by tech giants like Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook. These immense facilities house hundreds of thousands of computers. Their energy usage is high, yet they are leaders in terms of the amount of electricity they consume for computing tasks. “The public thinks these massive data centres are energy bad guys”, said lead author Eric Masanet. “But those data centres are the most efficient in the world.”
Earlier predictions held that the energy consumption of global data centres would triple or more in the next decade, based mainly on rising demand for data centre computing. At the time, it was in fact growing rapidly: From 2000 to 2005, it doubled. In 2007 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency forecasted another doubling from 2005 to 2010. But in 2011, Koomey assessed the actual increase in energy consumption between 2005 and 2010, and adjusted the estimate to 56%.
Truly dramatic improvements have come in more recent years, the New York Times reports. The researchers found that in 2010, 79% of data centre computing was done in smaller, traditional computer centres, mostly owned by non-tech firms. By 2018, the landscape had changed and 89% of data centre computing took place in large cloud data centres. This is by virtue of smarter technology, like tailored chips, high-density storage, virtual-machine software, ultra-fast networking and customized airflow systems, which increase computing power while optimizing energy efficiency.
The fact remains that data centres consume a lot of electricity – about 1% of global output. The researchers believe efficiency gains should continue to mostly offset rising demand and keep growth at a crawl for three or four more years. Beyond that, averting the environmental threat will entail steps such as more investment in energy-saving research and better measurement and information-sharing between data centres. The researchers said that the next few years will be “a critical transition phase to ensure a low-carbon and energy-efficient future.”
