People love to travel, and since the unprecedented COVID-19 travel restrictions were lifted, the desire to travel for both leisure and business has become stronger than ever. In fact, according to IATA, air travel in 2024 - measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) - increased by 10.4% compared to 2023. This figure is 3.8% above pre-pandemic (2019) levels.
For most, travelling is a pleasure. As a psychotherapist (as well as a head-hunter), I consider Freud’s psychoanalytic theory, in which the pleasure principle refers to the instinctive pursuit of pleasure and avoidance of pain to satisfy biological and psychological needs. If we accept Freud’s theory, these needs drive people to travel, making it one of the most universally shared pleasures of contemporary first-world society - and increasingly, the developing world as well.
Historically, the travel sector was often viewed as ancillary - a nice thing to do but not a serious, “grown-up” industry. The industry has always been vulnerable to various disruptions, including natural disasters, terrorism, geopolitics, recessions and pandemics to name a few.
However, today’s travellers seem more resilient and are undeterred by such challenges. In the post-COVID era, there has been - and continues to be - an unquenchable thirst for travel, whether for leisure, business or air cargo.
Looking ahead, IATA predicts that in 2025, demand for travel will continue to grow, albeit at a more moderate pace of 8.0%, aligning more closely with historical averages.
Of course, the issue of sustainability remains crucial. Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, addressed this concern, stating:
"Airlines are firmly committed to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. While airlines invested record amounts in purchasing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in 2024, less than 0.5% of fuel needs were met with SAF. SAF is in short supply, and costs must come down. Governments could strengthen their national energy security and resolve this issue by prioritising renewable fuel production, from which SAF is derived. In addition to securing energy supplies and increasing the SAF supply, diverting a fraction of the subsidies given for fossil fuel extraction to support renewable energy capacity would also boost prosperity through economic expansion and job creation."
According to a recent report by KPMG, significant CO₂ reductions can be achieved with existing aircraft fleets. Voluntary demand for SAF by airlines is growing rapidly, driven by corporate carbon reduction targets, increasing policy attention, and some passenger interest. Many airlines are already securing multi-year supply agreements. This demand is expected to solidify in the 2020s as national SAF mandates take effect - especially from 2025 onwards - starting in Europe and gradually expanding worldwide.
Mandates are likely to begin with low targets but will tighten rapidly throughout the 2030s and beyond. EU regulators are leading the charge: jet fuel supplied to EU airports will need to contain 2% SAF by 2025, increasing in five-year increments to reach 63% by 2050, with 28% derived from e-fuel. Sweden, Norway and France already have SAF mandates in place, while the UK plans to introduce its own in 2025, aiming for 10% SAF by 2030.
The report further notes that SAF is more expensive than conventional kerosene, potentially leading to higher airfares. Airlines will need to bring consumers along on this journey to sustainability through transparent pricing and clear communication. To mitigate risks associated with fuel supply, airlines may diversify their investments geographically and technologically, while also joining consortia that offer long-term fixed pricing for agreed volume ranges.
In conclusion, the travel industry looks set to continue thriving and has now established itself as a mature sector - one that has proven resilient to socio-economic and geopolitical headwinds. The desire to travel remains as strong as ever, but the industry must continue its transition away from fossil fuel dependency. If it fails to do so, travellers may begin seeking alternative pleasures that are more environmentally friendly.
As the travel and aviation industries evolve, so too must the leadership guiding them. At Boyden, we specialise in executive search for top talent in travel, aviation and aerospace - leaders who can drive innovation, navigate industry challenges and shape a more sustainable future.
To explore how Boyden can support your leadership needs, reach out to Rick White.
