As the global population ages, healthcare systems around the world are facing exceptional challenges and opportunities. The phenomenon, often referred to as "The Great Geriatrification," is characterised by a significant increase in the elderly population, necessitating a shift in how healthcare services are delivered. The fastest growing segment of the world’s population is the age group of people 85 and over with the U.S. centenarian population projected to quadruple over the next 30 years. Both the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) are at the forefront of this demographic revolution, each grappling with unique legislative, economic and social implications.
Based on the insightful piece written by my colleague, Jeff Parker, Principal, Healthcare & Life Sciences in the US, titled “US Population Shifts: Revolutionizing Healthcare and Home Care”, this article expands on this evolving topic with a particular focus to the UK’s healthcare landscape and its response to this demographic shift.
The UK Market Outlook
The UK is experiencing a significant demographic shift, with its senior population growing rapidly. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) projects that by 2041, one in four people in the UK will be aged 65 or over. This demographic change is driving an increasing demand for home health care, palliative care and other innovative care models, led by Integrated Care Systems (ICS).
The UK healthcare system is adapting to these changes by expanding home health care services and integrating digital health technologies such as telehealth, telemonitoring and wearable healthcare technology. These advancements are positioning home health care at the forefront of the industry’s new horizon with accelerating change. However, at present, the UK healthcare system is bursting at the seams, with record waits and overcrowding in corridors.
The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the shift from acute to in-home care. More than 300 nursing homes have closed across the UK due to understaffing and up to 40 percent of nursing home residents are living in facilities that are financially at risk of closure. This underscores the importance of alternative care solutions. Additionally, the rate of rural community critical access hospitals closing has reached all-time highs, making access to care an inequality in several less populated regions.
As nursing homes face closures and staffing challenges, there is a growing emphasis on home-based care solutions to keep the elderly engaged and active while remaining in the comfort of their own home. This shift of care to in-home settings is lighting a spark to flip the balance of power from the institutions of care to those who will decide who is welcome into their homes. This evolution is truly being driven by consumerism healthcare.
Balancing the desires of adults who believe their parents should move into care homes with the reluctance of the elderly residents themselves can be a delicate and emotional challenge. My 92-year-old Nan is a prime example, having recently been admitted to hospital on numerous occasions after falls at home. Adults often worry about their parents' safety, health and well-being, feeling that professional care can offer better support. Conversely, and in my Nan’s case after living in the same house for 35 years, elderly individuals may fear losing their independence, facing unfamiliar environments and being separated from their homes and communities. Ensuring that the elderly feel heard and respected in the decision-making process is crucial to finding a solution that honours their autonomy while addressing their children’s concerns.
The Assisted Dying Bill
The introduction of the Assisted Dying Bill in the UK has sparked considerable debate. The bill aims to legalise assisted dying for terminally ill adults who are mentally competent and have a prognosis of six months or less to live. If passed, the bill could lead to a shift in end-of-life care, with more emphasis on patient autonomy and choice. This could also impact the demand for hospice and palliative care services, as patients may opt for assisted dying rather than prolonged hospice care. The bill's progress will be closely watched by healthcare providers and policymakers, as it could set a precedent for other countries facing similar demographic challenges.
The US Market Outlook
The US senior citizen population is reaching a historic height of over 60 million people and specifically, the population of Americans aged 80+ is projected to increase by a remarkable 47% to 82 million towards the year 2050. This demographic shift has spawned a new term called "The Great Geriatrification" of society, not seen in the country’s 248-year history. As a result of this aging evolution, there is a revolutionary demand for non-acute care and post-acute care throughout the provider continuum of the healthcare industry.
A foundational example of this seismic shift can be seen in the volume of home health care, palliative care and PACE programs (Programs for All-Inclusive Care of the Elderly), as well as the increase in average daily census (ADC) for hospice programs providing end-of-life services. Over the last 12 years, patient counts in the PACE sector alone have nearly tripled and this trend is projected to continue over the next two decades. This unprecedented growth, which mirrors our aging society, represents an enormous opportunity for the post-acute sector of healthcare and specifically the blossoming PACE avenue, to continue expanding its reach and impact with more innovative strategies, driving more effective solutions. The US home care market, along with PACE programs, is expected to more than double from a market-cap of $100 billion in 2016 to an impressive $225 billion by 2025.
Since the turn of the 20th century and through the baby boom era, population trends have steadily grown. However, during the COVID pandemic, for the first time in generations, the Brookings Institute and the US Census Bureau reported a flatline trend in overall population growth coming to a stall, resulting in a projection by 2045 of deaths outpacing births. This reverse growth trend will lead to the US Population starting its decline by the year 2080. This new reality is already starting to be noticed in the healthcare ecosystem by which labour & delivery departments in several regions of the country are reducing staff or closing, while census for long-term care facilities, home health, PACE and hospice providers are seeing record growth and excessive demand.
Conclusion
The Great Geriatrification is reshaping the healthcare landscape in both the US and the UK. With an aging population, the demand for innovative care models like PACE in the US and home health care in the UK is growing. Legislative changes, such as the Assisted Dying Bill in the UK, are also influencing the future of healthcare provision. As the industry evolves, healthcare providers must adapt to meet the changing needs and preferences of the elderly population, ensuring that they receive comprehensive, compassionate and cost-effective care.
As a leading Executive Search, Interim Management and Leadership Consulting business in the Healthcare and Life Science sector, Boyden has helped clients shape the way they deliver critical services to patients. Through a rigorous process and deep sector knowledge, we understand each client’s specific needs and challenges, allowing us to identify leadership gaps and develop tailored interim executive healthcare solutions that align with organisational goals.
As the future of healthcare unfolds, Boyden is committed to staying ahead of these changes. By choosing Boyden, healthcare clients gain not just expertise but a dedicated strategic partner ready to guide them through the complexities of today's healthcare landscape.
